Peak craft is here! We are moving from craft beer taking share from traditional beers to more intense competition within the craft beer segment. There is also certain fatigue in the craft beer consumer group that leads to somewhat less experimentation. In the future three formats will strive. First, professional brew pubs (e.g. Stone) providing a superior localized experience and avaiaiblity in retail. Second, the Sam Adams / New Belgium / Goose Island, or in the case of Canada Mill Street, kind of larger brewers who are able to build a certain following aable to win the skew fight on distribution shelves. Third, a whole bunch of smaller brewers who might not survive in the long run, but who keep emerging with the barriers to entry being remaining low (this group will however remain small). There will be some overlap between theese categories, but we will see a lot more exits and not necessarily because of acquisitions but foreclosures. If Anheuser Inbev are smart, they will deploy a regional approach (really not in their DNA though) to their craft strategy and not practiced with Goose Island. They have to wrap their head around creating different KPI's than for their mass-makret beers, focused more on gross-profits based on differentiation advantages rather than per-unit profitability based on an efficiency game. Intersting enough, their Andy Goeler is going back and for the between Bud and craft. He is the designated boundary spanner eho I'd love to talk to. 

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